Statistics

So I mentioned before that I've been on Weight Watchers for a while, since August 22nd to be exact.  I decided to make a graph of my progress to see about what weight I could be by the time Buring Man rolls around.  I decided to use a simple linear regression.  I know weight loss isn't linear, but it's a quick and dirty graph.  So I graphed my weight since August 22 and projected out to the start of Burning Man, which is August 26.  The results were a bit disheartening:

Basically, if I keep going the way I am now without changing anything, I'd probably be around 275 lbs by Burning Man.  That's only 11 lbs less than I am now, and it would NOT get me off my apnea machine even if I work to get much more fit.  I'll need to work harder than this!

I decided to start from the first of the year instead.  If you see above though there's a weirdo spike right there.  I'm not sure what happened that week, The scale may have been wonky, or perhaps I was retaining a bunch of water.  I can gain up to seven pounds of water as a monthly cycle thing, so that spike may be consistent with that.  In any case, I threw that point out, not because it was so much higher, but because I was seven pounds less the next week, and it would make for a rediculous projection.  So I was left with only two data points for the year, a 1.4 lb loss.  That seems like a reasonable amount though.  If I'm very careful and stay on-plan all the time I think I can acheive a 1.4 lb loss per week fairly easily.

So here's the new graph which shows an average loss of 1.4 lbs a week:

I know, they're not such pretty graphs, as I said, quick and dirty.  So that puts me at about 242 pounds.  That should get me off the apnea machine before Burning Man. 

So now I know what I have to do.  All I have to do is do it!  Of course, that's the hard part.  So far this year I've tracked my points every day except my birthday and stayed within them.  I've also added exercise.  I'm trying to get to the gym at work three times a week and do at least 20 minutes of cardio.  I'm also trying to walk at lunch time for 20 minutes, but sometimes that's not possible, as work can get hectic.

Happy Friday!